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US Seeks to Test Iran Nuke Deal        07/27 06:12

   The Trump administration is pushing for inspections of suspicious Iranian 
military sites in a bid to test the strength of the nuclear deal that President 
Donald Trump desperately wants to cancel, senior U.S. officials said.

   WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Trump administration is pushing for inspections of 
suspicious Iranian military sites in a bid to test the strength of the nuclear 
deal that President Donald Trump desperately wants to cancel, senior U.S. 
officials said.

   The inspections are one element of what is designed to be a more aggressive 
approach to preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. While the Trump 
administration seeks to police the existing deal more strictly, it is also 
working to fix what Trump's aides have called "serious flaws" in the landmark 
deal that --- if not resolved quickly --- will likely lead Trump to pull out.

   That effort also includes discussions with European countries to negotiate a 
follow-up agreement to prevent Iran from resuming nuclear development after the 
deal's restrictions expire in about a decade, the officials said. The officials 
weren't authorized to discuss the efforts publicly and spoke on condition of 
anonymity.

   The inspections requests, which Iran would likely resist, could play heavily 
into Trump's much-anticipated decision about whether to stick with the deal 
he's long derided.

   If Iran refuses inspections, Trump would finally have a solid basis to say 
Iran is breaching the deal, setting up Tehran to take most of the blame if the 
agreement collapses. If Iran agrees to inspections, those in Trump's 
administration who want to preserve the deal would be emboldened to argue it's 
advancing U.S. national security effectively.

   The campaign gained fresh urgency this month following a dramatic clash 
within the administration about whether to certify Iran's compliance, as is 
required every 90 days.

   Trump was eager to declare Tehran in violation, even though the 
International Atomic Energy Agency that monitors compliance says its 
infractions are minor. At the urging of top Cabinet members, Trump begrudgingly 
agreed at the last-minute to avoid a showdown for another three months --- but 
only with assurances the U.S. would increase pressure on Iran to test whether 
the deal is truly capable of addressing its nuclear ambitions and other 
troublesome activities.

   Trump faces another certification deadline in three months, and it's far 
from clear that either new inspections or any "fixes" to address whether his 
concerns will be in place by then. Trump told the Wall Street Journal this week 
he expects to say Iran isn't complying, setting a high bar for Secretary of 
State Rex Tillerson and other aides to persuade him otherwise.

   "If it was up to me, I would have had them noncompliant 180 days ago," Trump 
said.

   To that end, the administration is seeking to force Iran to let in IAEA 
inspectors to military sites where the U.S. intelligence community believes the 
Islamic Republic may be cheating on the deal, several officials said. Access to 
Iran's military sites was one of the most contentious issues in the 2015 deal, 
in which Tehran agreed to roll back its nuclear program in exchange for 
billions of dollars in sanctions relief.

   Last week in Vienna, where the International Atomic Energy Agency is based, 
Undersecretary of State Thomas Shannon floated the proposal to the European 
members of the Joint Commission that oversees the deal, one official said. 
Britain, France and Germany joined the U.S., Russia, China and the European 
Union two years ago in brokering the deal with Iran.

   To force inspections of new sites in Iran, the U.S. would need to enlist the 
support of the IAEA and a majority of the countries in the deal. But the U.S. 
has run into early resistance over concerns it has yet to produce a "smoking 
gun" --- compelling evidence of illicit activity at a military site that the 
IAEA could use to justify inspections, officials said.

   Among the concerns about a rush toward inspections is that if they fail to 
uncover evidence of violations, it would undermine the IAEA's credibility and 
its ability to demand future inspections. So the U.S. is working to produce 
foolproof intelligence about illicit activity, officials said. The officials 
declined to describe the intelligence activities or the Iranian sites the U.S. 
believes are involved.

   Sen. Bob Corker, R-Tenn., who chairs the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, 
alluded to the strategy during an event hosted Wednesday by The Washington 
Post. Corker said the U.S. was trying to "radically enforce" the deal by asking 
for access to "various facilities" in Iran.

   "If they don't let us in, boom," Corker said. "You want the breakup of this 
deal to be about Iran. You don't want it to be about the U.S., because we want 
our allies with us."

   As a candidate, Trump threatened to rip up the deal that President Barack 
Obama brokered. As president, Trump has yet to take that step, as his 
administration finishes a broader Iran policy review expected to conclude in 
August.

   The other major step to try and address what Trump has deemed flaws in the 
deal involves ensuring that Iran can't revert to old behavior once the 
limitations on its program "sunset" over the next decade-plus. The State 
Department said Trump has directed his administration to "work with allies to 
explore options" for dealing with that and other shortcomings. Talks are under 
way with the European countries about a supplemental deal, though it's unclear 
how Iran could be persuaded to sign on.

   The deal's provisions for inspections of military facilities, or "undeclared 
sites," involve a complex process with plenty of opportunities for Iran to 
stall. Tehran can propose alternatives to on-site inspections, or reject the 
request, which would trigger a 24-day process for the Joint Commission 
countries to override the rejection.

   That could drag on for months. And under ambiguities built into the deal, 
it's unclear whether Iran must allow IAEA inspectors into military sites, or 
whether the Iranians can take their own environmental samples and send them to 
the IAEA for testing, as was allowed under a 2015 side agreement that let Iran 
use its own experts to inspect the Parchin military site.

   Even if Trump declares Iran in violation of the deal --- a move that would 
invigorate his conservative base --- he could still leave Iran's sanctions 
relief in place.

   American businesses are eager for the deal to survive so they can pursue 
lucrative opportunities in Iran. The aviation industry recently signed billions 
of dollars of contracts to sell passenger plans to Iranian airlines, including 
a $16.6 billion deal for Boeing.


(KA)

 
 
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